Forecast of Rice Reserves in Special Region of Yogyakarta

Food is one of the basic human needs. A priority food commodity rice. The Special Region Yogyakarta Province areas that has agricultural land able to supply needs in area. However, population growing annually, having an impact on have be met. study aimed determine reserves, especially rice Yogyakarta. This used a descriptive analytical method and ARIMA forecasting model. time series data from 2011 2021 obtained dataku application managed by BAPPEDA consisted production data, per capita consumption data. results showed reserves decreased over years. Based results, best model was c(9,1,6). In addition, result reserve forecast 2022 2025 also decreasing trend year year. Therefore, it crucial for government make efforts maintain availability achieve local security.Keywords: ARIMA, Reserves Rice, Forecasting,